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抱歉昨天坐了一天火车
Possibility 4) There are scary predator civilizations out there, and most intelligent life knows better than to broadcast any outgoing signals and advertse their location. This is an unpleasant concept and would help explain the lack of any signals being received by the SETI satellites. It also means that we might be the super naive newbies who are being unbelievably stupid and risky by ever broadcasting outward signals. There’s a debate going on currently about whether we should engage in METI (Messaging to Extraterrestrial Intelligence—the reverse of SETI) or not, and most people say we should not. Stephen Hawking warns, “If aliens visit us, the outcome would be much as when Columbus landed in America, which didn’t turn out well for the Native Americans.” Even Carl Sagan (a general believer that any civilization advanced enough for interstellar travel would be altruistic, not hostile) called the practice of METI “deeply unwise and immature,” and recommended that “the newest children in a strange and uncertain cosmos should listen quietly for a long time, patiently learning about the universe and comparing notes, before shouting into an unknown jungle that we do not understand.” Scary.
4)宇宙中有很多掠夺性文明,高级文明知道不该向外发信号暴露自己的位置。如果这是真的那就麻烦了,它解释了为什么SETI飞船为什么没收到任何信号,我们还向外发射信号,真是超级幼稚以及难以置信的傻。对于是否支持METI(向外发射信号-和SETI相对),很多人不赞同。Stephen Hawking警告道:外星人造访地球会像哥伦布登陆美洲,当地原住民不会有好下场。甚至Carl Sagan(坚持相信能够星际旅行的高级文明是无私的,没有敌意的)也认为METI的实行不明智,想法不成熟,他说新生儿应该多静静地聆听一个陌生不确定的世界,耐心地接收比较宇宙的信息,理解了一切我们再向陌生的丛林里喊。想想都可怕。
Possibility 5) There’s only one instance of higher-intelligent life—a “superpredator” civilization (like humans are here on Earth)—that is far more advanced than everyone else and keeps it that way by exterminating any intelligent civilization once they get past a certain level. This would suck. The way it might work is that it’s an inefficient use of resources to exterminate all emerging intelligences, maybe because most die out on their own. But past a certain point, the super beings make their move—because to them, an emerging intelligent species becomes like a virus as it starts to grow and spread. This theory suggests that whoever was the first in the galaxy to reach intelligence won, and now no one else has a chance. This would explain the lack of activity out there because it would keep the number of super-intelligent civilizations to just one.
5)宇宙中只有一个“超级掠食者”型高级文明(和地球上人类差不多),一旦某一智慧文明达到某一级别就会被它消灭。这会很糟糕。这是可能的,因为消灭所有新的元智能是对资源的低效利用,也许有的不用动手自己就会灭绝。但是新智能物种发展到某种程度,他们就会像病毒一样繁殖和传播。那么银河系中第一个达到智能的文明为王,其他文明不会有机会发展。我们找不到其他文明的活动是因为超级智慧文明只有一个。
Possibility 6) There’s plenty of activity and noise out there, but our technology is too primitive and we’re listening for the wrong things. Like walking into a modern-day office building, turning on a walkie-talkie, and when you hear no activity (which of course you wouldn’t hear because everyone’s texting, not using walkie-talkies), determining that the building must be empty. Or maybe, as Carl Sagan has pointed out, it could be that our minds work exponentially faster or slower than another form of intelligence out there—e.g. it takes them 12 years to say “Hello,” and when we hear that communication, it just sounds like white noise to us.
6)宇宙中有大量活动和信号,只是我们的科技太原始而在接收错误的信号种类。想象你走进一座现代办公楼,打开对讲机却听不见任何声音(别人都在发短信,你却在用对讲机),你就认为楼里没人。Carl Sagan说可能人类大脑指数级快于或慢于其他文明,比如其他文明对我们说“你好”,12年后传到这里我们听到的只是白噪声。 |
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